But you’re scared that Steve, your co-CEO, is getting cold feet. You blame macro-economic factors outside your control and lazy employees.Įither way, you’ve been trying as best you can to keep the company afloat, cooking your books browner than ever and turning an even blinder eye to plainly felonious transactions. Your board of directors blame “comatose, monkey-brained leadership”. The Covid-19 pandemic has been uncharacteristically kind to most of the tech industry, but not to your particular sliver of it. Business has been bad at Steveslist, the online marketplace that you co-founded together where people can buy and sell things and no one asks too many questions. You are worried about your good buddy and co-CEO, Steve Steveington. The story and characters are obviously not. You'll ideally need a fast hand evaluator, but that should be easy to find online if you don't want to write it yourself.The vulnerability in this post is real. So on the turn (pre-river), it's even cheaper to compute the hand equities. Given the flop and turn, there's only 42 possible river cards. Given the flop, there's only choose(43, 2) = 903 boards possible by the end, so the flop probabilities (which you call the pre-turn), it's very cheap to enumerate all the runouts and compute the average equity for the three hands. This gives you preflop probabilities, and this is the most expensive thing to compute. (Or more accurately, compute the equity for each hand, since sometimes 2 or 3 hands will tie on the river). Enumerate all boards, and count how many times each hand wins on the river. That means there's choose(46, 5) = 1,370,754 different boards by the river. Given 3 hands (6 cards), there's 46 cards remaining in the deck. For example, if you're considering preflop probabilities, you only care about the entire board by the river, and not the specific flop, turn and river. The trick is to disregard the order the cards come out as much as possible. The numbers are much smaller than you might expect, so brute-forcing is quite possible.
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